| Police: Man with rifle, bulletproof vest arrested at Springfield, Missouri, Walmart store Posted: 08 Aug 2019 05:22 PM PDT  Springfield, Missouri, police said the man had body armor and entered the Walmart store carrying a "tactical rifle" and another gun.
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| Chicago mayor calls out Ivanka Trump's 'nonsense tweets' about her city Posted: 07 Aug 2019 12:16 PM PDT  After the president's eldest daughter compares gun violence in Chicago to the mass shootings in El Paso and Dayton, Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot responds.
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| Conservative think tank sues Wisconsin's Evers over access Posted: 07 Aug 2019 01:38 PM PDT  A conservative think tank has filed a federal lawsuit against Democratic Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers, alleging he violated the First Amendment rights of staff members who were denied access to a press briefing and kept off an advisory list sent to other reporters. The MacIver Institute for Public Policy filed the lawsuit Tuesday in Madison alleging that Evers violated its staffers' constitutional rights to free speech, freedom of the press and equal access. Evers' spokeswoman, Melissa Baldauff, said in a statement that Evers believed strongly in a "fair and unbiased press corps" and is committed to openness and transparency in state government.
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| Russian military base blast kills two, causes radiation spike Posted: 08 Aug 2019 08:26 AM PDT  Two people died in an explosion at a military base in the Russian far north Thursday that caused a brief spike in radiation, the second accident to hit the country's facilities in a week. An explosion occurred during testing of a liquid propellant jet engine at the base near the Arctic, causing equipment to catch fire, the defence ministry said. "As a result of the accident, six defence ministry employees and a developer were injured.
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| Man believes Trump 'ordered him' to attack child for ‘disrespecting’ national anthem by keeping hat on, lawyer says Posted: 08 Aug 2019 01:37 PM PDT  A man suspected of attacking a child who was wearing a hat during the US National Anthem believed he was encouraged by Donald Trump to carry out the assault, according to his lawyer. Curt Brockway, a 39-year-old US Army veteran who was charged on Monday in the assault, suffered a traumatic brain injury in a vehicle crash in 2000 that has affected his decision making, attorney Lance Jasper told the Missoulian. The lawyer said he will seek a mental health evaluation for Mr Brockway, who seemingly became caught up in the heightened animosity and rhetoric gripping the nation, and convinced himself that he was following the president's orders."His commander in chief is telling people that if they kneel, they should be fired, or if they burn a flag, they should be punished," Mr Jasper said.He added that Mr Brockway "certainly didn't understand it was a crime."Mr Brockway told a sheriff's deputy that he asked the boy to remove his hat out of respect for the national anthem before the start of the county rodeo, Mineral County Attorney Ellen Donohue wrote in the document describing the attack.The boy reportedly cursed at Mr Brockway in response, and the man grabbed him by the throat, "lifted him into the air and slammed the boy into the ground," Ms Donohue wrote.Mr Jasper's comments arrived as prosecutors formally charged Mr Brockway with assault on a minor, a felony that carries a maximum five-year prison sentence and a $50,000 (£41,183) fine upon conviction.Prosecutors said the boy was airlifted to a hospital for a possible concussion and skull fracture. His condition was not immediately known.Conduct during the playing of the national anthem has been an issue in recent years, with some NFL players kneeling to protest police brutality. Mr Trump once called for NFL owners to fire players who kneel or engage in other acts of protest during the anthem."Trump never necessarily says go hurt somebody, but the message is absolutely clear," Mr Jasper said. "I am certain of the fact that (Brockway) was doing what he believed he was told to do, essentially, by the president. ... Everyone should learn to dial it down a little bit, from the president to Mineral County."The Associated Press contributed to this report
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| Judge greenlights libel suit against NPR over Seth Rich reports Posted: 07 Aug 2019 06:06 PM PDT  The lawsuit will proceed to the discovery process, including demands for documents and depositions from the journalists involved.
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| China surprises with best export growth since March, but imports remain weak Posted: 07 Aug 2019 08:49 PM PDT  China's exports unexpectedly returned to growth in July on improved global demand despite escalating U.S. trade pressure, but the rebound may be short-lived as Washington prepares to slap even more tariffs on Chinese goods. Analysts say a sharp drop in the yuan currency this week may offer only limited help for Chinese exporters, who are facing additional U.S. levies next month, shrinking profit margins, and sputtering demand worldwide.
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| American Volunteer Branded 'Enemy of State' and Shot Outside His Home in the Philippines Posted: 08 Aug 2019 01:44 AM PDT  He volunteers with a group fighting against a hydropower project
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| The Latest: Family of Ohio shooter, sister release statement Posted: 06 Aug 2019 05:57 PM PDT  The family of the Ohio shooter and his sister who was among the nine killed has released a statement saying they are devastated, and cooperating with law enforcement's investigation. The family offered "their most heartfelt prayers and condolences" to the victims killed by 24-year-old Connor Betts, who opened fire early Sunday in Dayton's Oregon entertainment district. Twenty-two-year-old Megan Betts was killed by her brother.
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| Popeyes is launching a new fried chicken sandwich nationwide Aug. 12 Posted: 08 Aug 2019 09:24 AM PDT  Fried chicken fans will soon be able to get Popeyes chicken on a brioche bun for $3.99 nationwide.
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| NOAA increases chance for 2019 to be above-normal Atlantic hurricane season Posted: 08 Aug 2019 10:03 AM PDT  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration increased its prediction for the 2019 Hurricane season from 9-15 named storms to 10-17 and from 4-8 hurricanes to 5-9.
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| Badass Planes, Ranked Posted: 07 Aug 2019 06:50 AM PDT |
| Kashmir autonomy fed 'terrorism': Modi Posted: 08 Aug 2019 10:14 AM PDT  India's Muslim-majority Kashmir region was stripped of its autonomy to free it from Pakistani-encouraged "terrorism and separatism", Prime Minister Narendra Modi said Thursday. In his first comments on the constitutional bombshell announced Monday while Kashmir was under a military lockdown, Modi highlighted security as one of the top reasons for the "historic decision". "Friends, I have full belief that we will be able to free Jammu and Kashmir from terrorism and separatism under this (new) system," Modi said.
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| Here are all the 2020 Democratic presidential candidates who have qualified for the September primary debates Posted: 08 Aug 2019 08:15 AM PDT  The next round of debates have much more strict criteria for candidates looking to secure a spot on stage. As a result, the field could thin out fast.
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| Gazans too poor to afford sheep for Eid sacrifice under blockade, Israel cash row Posted: 08 Aug 2019 03:08 AM PDT ![Gazans too poor to afford sheep for Eid sacrifice under blockade, Israel cash row]( "Gazans too poor to afford sheep for Eid sacrifice under blockade, Israel cash row") Ali usually marks the Muslim holiday of Eid Al-Adha with his family in the Gaza Strip by sacrificing a sheep, a customary annual ritual for those who can spare the cost. Gaza has suffered under years of blockade by Israel and Egypt, which cite security concerns for restrictions the World Bank says have severely damaged its economy. Ali said that in March, the PA cut his monthly salary in half, leaving him with of 1,500 shekels ($431).
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| Wife of US student held in Iran says husband 'not a spy' Posted: 08 Aug 2019 02:18 PM PDT  The wife of a Princeton University graduate student imprisoned in Iran said Thursday that her husband is not a spy as she appealed for international cooperation to secure his release. "I plead for the gate of mercy to be opened for him, and I hope he can come back to us as soon as possible," Hua Qu said in a speech marking the third anniversary of her husband's detention. Hua also said there have been no recent productive conversations between the United States and the Iranian government about Xiyue Wang, a Chinese-American history researcher who was sentenced to 10 years in prison after being convicted of "infiltrating" Iran and sending confidential material abroad.
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| Police shootings are a leading cause of death for young American men, new research shows Posted: 08 Aug 2019 07:12 AM PDT  The phrase "leading causes of death" might bring to mind cancer, heart disease, suicide and drug overdose.But new research published this month in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences finds that young American men are at a surprisingly high risk of being killed by a police officer.Among men of all races, ages 25 to 29, police killings are the sixth-leading cause of death, according to a study led by Frank Edwards of Rutgers University, with a total annual mortality risk of 1.8 deaths per 100,000 people.Accidental death, a category that includes automotive accidents and drug overdoses, was the biggest cause at 76.6 deaths per 100,000, and followed by suicide (26.7), other homicides (22.0), heart disease (7.0), and cancer (6.3).The data used in this study do not differentiate between police killings that were later determined to be justified and those that were not. FBI data, which is widely acknowledged to be incomplete, shows that 400 to 500 homicides each year are determined to be justified, which is defined as "the killing of a felon by a law enforcement officer in the line of duty". Those deaths represent about half of the roughly 1,000 annual police killings that independent tallies, including those by The Washington Post and The Guardian, have found.For a black man, the risk of being killed by a police officer is about 2.5 times higher than that of a white man. "Our models predict that about 1 in 1,000 black men and boys will be killed by police over the life course," the authors write.In the 20 to 24 age group, black men represent nearly 2 per cent of such deaths, compared with 0.5 per cent for whites. A 40-year-old black man has about the same risk of being killed by a police officer as a 20-year-old white man.Because no reliable federal data exists for police killings, the authors turned to the data compiled by Fatal Encounters, a project that uses news reports, public records requests and crowdsourced information to tally officer-involved fatalities.The authors note that Fatal Encounters was "endorsed as a sound source of data" by the federal Bureau of Justice Statistics in a 2016 report, but they warn that the data likely undercounts the number of officer-involved killings: "If any death is not covered by news organisations or is not documented in searchable public records," they note, "it will not appear in the data."The study excludes police-involved deaths determined to be a suicide, the result of a car accident or an accident, like an overdose or fall.Police killings are far more common in the United States than in other advanced democracies. That is partly because the US has a much higher homicide rate – "25.2 times higher" – than economically similar countries, according to a 2016 study.One of the prime drivers of that difference, research shows, is the nation's high rate of gun ownership: Americans make up 4 per cent of the global population, but own nearly half the guns in the world.The nation's high rates of violence and gun ownership make many police fearful for their lives, research shows. Data compiled by the National Law Enforcement Officers Memorial Fund shows that, in recent years, 100 to 200 officers are killed annually in the line of duty. And other research shows that police are more likely to be killed in the line of duty in states with more permissive gun laws.Officers can respond to the threat of violence by using lethal force of their own: more than half of the 544 people shot and killed by police to date in 2019 were found to be carrying firearms, according to data compiled by The Washington Post.The authors of the PNAS report note another factor at play in the country's high rate of police shootings: "Austerity in social welfare and public health programmes has led to police and prisons becoming catchall responses to social problems," they wrote.In his recent book, "The End of Policing," sociologist Alex Vitale of Brooklyn College argues that police often end up being the de facto first responders for mental health issues because of "a decision that's been made by political leaders not to fund adequate community-based mental health services".At least 20 per cent of people fatally shot by police so far this year had documented mental health issues, according to The Post's data.The study's authors say their findings reinforce calls "to treat police violence as a public health issue" with "profound consequences for public health, democracy, and racial stratification".The Washington Post
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| UN report: Climate change threatens our food supply. Here's how we can fix it Posted: 08 Aug 2019 01:53 PM PDT  The report from United Nations scientists describes a cycle in which the problems of land degradation and climate change exacerbate each other.
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| The bodies of 2 Canadian murder suspects have been found after a 20-day manhunt across 5 provinces, police say Posted: 07 Aug 2019 02:14 PM PDT  The Royal Canadian Mounted Police launched a nationwide manhunt for Kam McLeod, 19, and Bryer Schmegelsky, 18, on July 19.
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| Man in anthem attack convinced Trump ordered it, lawyer says Posted: 08 Aug 2019 10:41 AM PDT  A Montana man charged with assaulting a 13-year-old boy who refused to remove his hat during the national anthem believed he was doing what President Donald Trump wanted him to do, his attorney said. Attorney Lance Jasper told the Missoulian he will seek a mental health evaluation for Curt Brockway, a U.S. Army veteran who became caught up in the heightened animosity and rhetoric gripping the nation, and convinced himself that he was following the president's orders. Brockway suffered a traumatic brain injury in a vehicle crash in 2000 that has affected his decision making, and Jasper said he plans to raise that in his client's defense.
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| The U.S. is Close to a Peace Deal With the Taliban, Officials Say Posted: 08 Aug 2019 01:07 PM PDT  American troops could leave Afghanistan by November 2020, but hurdles remain and some critics are skeptical
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| Bill de Blasio: Corporations have to pay their fair share in taxes Posted: 07 Aug 2019 06:46 PM PDT  Democratic presidential candidate and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio takes on tax reform on 'Hannity.'
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| US border detentions plunge in July after Mexico deal Posted: 08 Aug 2019 12:39 PM PDT  US southern border detentions plunged for the second straight month in July after a deal with Mexico to block Central American migrants, the Department of Homeland Security announced Thursday. US Border Patrol agents detained or blocked 82,049 migrants at the frontier with Mexico last month, down from 104,367 in June and a 13-year peak of 144,266 in May, they said. The Department of Homeland Security attributed the fall to a deal signed with Mexico in June to stem the flow of migrants traveling northward to the United States from Central America, mainly Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador.
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| Muslim pilgrims descend on Mecca for haj, Saudis warn against politics Posted: 08 Aug 2019 02:28 AM PDT ![Muslim pilgrims descend on Mecca for haj, Saudis warn against politics]( "Muslim pilgrims descend on Mecca for haj, Saudis warn against politics") Hundreds of thousands of white-clad pilgrims, many gripping umbrellas to ward off Saudi Arabia's blistering summer sun, descended on Mecca this week ahead of the annual haj. Saudi officials asked Muslims to focus on rituals of worship, warning against politicizing the rite as wars rage on in the region and at a time of heightened tensions between Sunni Muslim Saudi Arabia and Shi'ite Muslim adversary Iran. "Haj...is not a place for political conflicts or to raise sectarian slogans that divide Muslims," Abdulrahman al-Sudais, imam of the Grand Mosque of Mecca, told reporters.
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| Google is getting better at making sure you book the cheapest possible flight Posted: 08 Aug 2019 12:29 PM PDT  For the past few years, I have been almost exclusively using Google's online travel tools to book flights. It's often the most convenient way to sort through dozens of flight options at once, and the interface is decidedly more manageable than what most competitors have to offer. That said, it does lack some features that other sites provide, but this week, the platform came one step closer to being the ultimate online travel companion.Google has been updating its travel tools rather frequently in recent years, highlighted by the launch of a travel portal in May which unified all of the features and menus into a single webpage. But that was just the beginning, as the new features arriving this week seem built to convince users never to book travel anywhere else.As Google Travel's Richard Holden noted in a blog post on Thursday, Google already shows you if prices for a flight you're about to book are high, low, or typical. But starting today, you will see all the same information for your exact itinerary. Google will also show you how the price has changed over the past few months on some flights, and will even warn you when it expects the price to go up or predicts the price won't go any lower.For a limited time, Google is offering a price guarantee for flights it predicts won't drop in price. If you book a flight on Google Flights between August 13th and September 2nd with Google's price guarantee, and the price drops, Google will refund you the difference. You don't even have to check -- Google will do the work for you.Other new features include recommendations for hotels, restaurants, and activities at destinations you're flying in to, and suggestions for which neighborhoods to stay in depending on how much you'll willing to spend, what you plan to do on your trip, and more. These should all roll out to Google Travel in the coming weeks.
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| NRSC Suspends Twitter Advertising after McConnell’s Account Is Locked Posted: 08 Aug 2019 10:00 AM PDT  The National Republican Senate Committee (NRSC), the Senate GOP's campaign arm, terminated its spending on Twitter advertisements Thursday, expressing outrage that Senator Mitch McConnell's Twitter account was locked after his team shared a video of protesters making threats against him outside his house.The NRSC called the mammoth social-media platform's move "outrageous" and said ad spending would be cut off indefinitely."Twitter's hostile actions toward Leader McConnell's campaign are outrageous, and we will not tolerate it," NRSC spokesman Jesse Hunt said. "The NRSC will suspend all spending with Twitter until further notice. We will not spend our resources on a platform that silences conservatives."The Kentucky Republican's account was locked on Wednesday for posting footage of protesters shouting obscenities and making violent threats outside of his home, which the company said violates its "violent threats policy."A woman identified as Black Lives Matter Louisville leader Chanelle Helm can be heard saying in the video that McConnell "should have broken his little, raggedy, wrinkled-a*s neck," in the recent fall that resulted in a broken shoulder from which he is currently recovering. Another woman can be heard talking about stabbing McConnell in the heart."This is a problem with the speech police in America today," McConnell's campaign manager, Kevin Golden, said in a statement. "Twitter will allow the words of 'Massacre Mitch' to trend nationally on their platform but locks our account for posting actual threats against us. We appealed and Twitter stood by their decision, saying our account will remain locked until we delete the video.""Silicon Valley is trying to silence conservatives," read a fundraising email from the Committee, adding that supporters should "push back."Other Republican lawmakers expressed their support for the Senate leader, with some pledging to join the NRSC in ceasing to spend money on Twitter ads until his account is restored."Agree with the NRSC. Team Marsha won't spend resources on Twitter until the Team Mitch account is back. StopTheBias," read a tweet from Tennessee Senator Marsha Blackburn's account.
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| View Photos of the 2020 Acura NSX in Indy Yellow Pearl Posted: 08 Aug 2019 03:00 AM PDT |
| Former SS guard of Nazi camp, 92, to go on trial in Germany Posted: 08 Aug 2019 06:36 AM PDT  A 92-year-old former SS private will go on trial this fall in Germany on 5,230 counts of being an accessory to murder, accused of helping the Nazis' Stutthof concentration camp function, a Hamburg court said Thursday. "Surveillance was necessary for the concentration camp to function, and the camp was made to kill people," Hamburg state court spokesman Kai Wantzen said of the prosecution's argument. Wantzen said the suspect did not deny to authorities that he had served in Stutthof and said he was aware people were being killed.
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| 'We've been up all night.' Child Protection Services couldn't locate separated children Posted: 08 Aug 2019 11:22 AM PDT  State Child Protection Services was not notified of the raids beforehand. A state lawmaker says some detainees were released to care for children.
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| Biden defiantly defends remarks about Trump and white supremacists Posted: 08 Aug 2019 02:26 PM PDT  "He said there were 'very fine people in both groups,'" Biden told fairgoers. "No sitting president has ever said something like that."
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| New Mexico faces extreme water scarcity on par with the United Arab Emirates. Experts warn more 'day zeros' are looming. Posted: 07 Aug 2019 09:03 AM PDT  The global water crisis will bring more "day zeros," when a city's taps run dry, a new report says. Worldwide, 17 countries face extreme water stress.
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| India's Modi defends powderkeg Kashmir move Posted: 08 Aug 2019 11:05 AM PDT  Modi's Hindu-nationalist government imposed direct rule on the Indian held portion of Kashmir on Monday, setting off a new crisis in one of the world's most volatile security flashpoints. Speaking for the first time since the move, and with the people of Kashmir enduring a military lockdown, Modi hailed it as a "historic decision" that would bring peace to the region. "Friends, I have full belief that we will be able to free Jammu and Kashmir from terrorism and separatism under this system," Modi said in a televised address.
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| Russia freezes bank accounts linked to opposition politician Navalny Posted: 08 Aug 2019 04:41 AM PDT  Russian authorities on Thursday froze a slew of bank accounts linked to jailed opposition politician Alexei Navalny as part of a money laundering investigation that his allies say is a trumped-up attempt to cripple his political movement. The move comes ahead of a series of planned nationwide demonstrations on Saturday being organized by Navalny's allies to protest against the exclusion of opposition candidates from a Moscow election next month. Russian investigators said in a statement on Thursday that they had frozen the bank accounts of Navalny's anti-corruption foundation, those of another organization, and those of more than 100 linked individuals and legal entities.
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| Thailand's fugitive ex-premier gets Serbian citizenship Posted: 08 Aug 2019 08:29 AM PDT  Fugitive former Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, who was sentenced in Thailand to five years in prison on graft-related charges, has received Serbian citizenship. State news agency Tanjug reported Thursday that the Serbian government granted her the citizenship "because it could be in the interest of Serbia." Serbian officials did not comment on the reason behind the decision. A government decree confirming she was granted citizenship was published in June in Serbia's official gazette.
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| 57 people are dead and 18,000 were hospitalized in Japan as the country grapples with a stifling heat wave Posted: 07 Aug 2019 01:58 AM PDT  Scorching temperatures have plagued Japan for weeks, resulting in scores of heat-related deaths this summer.
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| View Photos of the 2019 Fiat 500X Posted: 08 Aug 2019 09:59 AM PDT |
| U.S. Sanction Plan for Russian Pipe Could Repeat Reagan Failures Posted: 08 Aug 2019 01:10 AM PDT ![U.S. Sanction Plan for Russian Pipe Could Repeat Reagan Failures]( "U.S. Sanction Plan for Russian Pipe Could Repeat Reagan Failures") (Bloomberg) -- Efforts by the U.S. Senate to hamper a controversial natural gas pipeline from Russia to Germany have probably come too late.The Senate is yet to vote on a bill to impose sanctions on construction of the undersea part of the 750-mile Nord Stream 2 link under the Baltic Sea, but the project is already almost complete and scheduled to be finished this year.The faltering U.S. attempt to prevent the pipeline mimics similarly unsuccessful moves to limit Soviet gas exports to Europe during the Reagan era in the early 1980s, according to Jonathan Stern, a senior research fellow at Oxford Institute for Energy Studies."They were resisted and ineffective then and I think we can expect the same result today," he said. "This all looks likely to be too late to be very significant since most of these pipelines have already been laid, unless the U.S. attempts retroactive sanctions, which I think could really raise a storm on this side of the Atlantic."The project has split the European Union, with nations including Poland concerned about Russia's Gazprom PJSC, already the region's dominant supplier, boosting its influence in the region when the link is finished. It also raised trade tension with the U.S., with President Donald Trump warning that the project would boost dependence on Russia and Energy Secretary Rick Perry touting "freedom gas" from North America.It's not so much that this year's attempts by the senators will stop the project, but there "might be a bit of disruption," said Wayne Bryan, a trader and analyst at Alfa Energy Ltd. in London. Gas prices for 2020 in the Netherlands are 55% higher than for delivery next month, signaling the market's assessment of heightened supply risk next year.Germany and other backers of Nord Stream 2 say the pipeline is needed to replace coal and nuclear plants being shuttered across Europe in order to help back up intermittent renewable supply and meet climate goals.The legislation creating the sanctions sponsored by Texas Republican Ted Cruz and New Hampshire Democrat Jeanne Shaheen would target vessels that lay the pipeline and sanction executives from companies linked to those vessels. Shaheen said that the only companies that would be affected are Allseas Group SA of Switzerland and Saipem SpA."Saipem does not believe this legislation as drafted applies to Saipem's existing contractual commitments for this project," said Vincenzo Romeo Tramontano, a spokesman for the Milan-based company. "Saipem understands that this legislation is aimed at imposing future sanctions on certain vessels providing construction support" to the pipeline.Allseas, which is laying the twin pipelines, declined to "speculate on potential impacts of proposed sanctions," the company said by email.While the U.S. had few objections to the first, almost identical, Nord Stream link that started operations in 2011, two subsequent events may help explain the current opposition.The first is the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, a key transit nation for Gazprom's gas that stands to lose billions of dollars if supplies go via Nord Stream 2 instead, which culminated in the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the imposition of sanctions by the U.S. and European Union. The second is the start of U.S. shale gas exports in 2016, which have since boomed to make the nation the third-largest liquefied natural gas exporter.With plunging renewable-energy costs the U.S. may be worried about the future of global gas demand, said Laurent Segalen, a former commodities banker who is now a partner at Megawatt-X in London, advising on financing wind and solar projects."In Asia, U.S. LNG is undercut by the Qataris and the Aussies -- Germany is the prize, and the U.S. LNG industry want to snap it from the Russians," he said. "If Nord Stream 2 goes through, the U.S. LNG exporters can kiss goodbye to hundreds of LNG cargoes to Germany in the coming years."\--With assistance from Daniel Flatley.To contact the reporter on this story: Mathew Carr in London at m.carr@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Reed Landberg at landberg@bloomberg.net, Rob Verdonck, Lars PaulssonFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Family of Dayton mass shooter 'shocked and devastated' by Sunday deaths Posted: 07 Aug 2019 09:04 AM PDT  For the first time, the family of the Dayton mass shooter issued a statement to the public, read by Bellbrook Police Chief Doug Doherty.
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| ISIS, Assad, and Turkey Are Waging a Shadow War on U.S. Allies in Syria Posted: 08 Aug 2019 02:05 AM PDT  George Ourfalian/AFP/GettyQAMISHLO, Syria—An enormous fire raged across several wheat fields outside this town on July 6. It was a dry summer day and dark smoke towered over the countryside as the flames spread across the farmland. Some locals watched in awe at the inferno. Others tried to fight back with shovels and rakes. They had little success. They watched the blaze consume their livelihood. Locals told The Daily Beast that the fire started near Turkish military checkpoints along the border and made its way south across Kurdish farms.Scenes like this have become commonplace this summer as fires have burned across Northeast Syria (or "Rojava" as it is known to the Kurds and their supporters). They have been particularly destructive this year and suspiciously concentrated in contested territories that make up the lines between between U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Turkish troops and Syrian pro-regime forces—as well as scattered fires near former ISIS strongholds. Suicide Attack on U.S. Troops in Syria Leaves a 'State of Terror,' Fears of Trump Exit PlansNow, as Turkish leaders threaten to invade this region, things could heat up even more.In December, President Donald Trump declared the so-called Islamic State to be completely destroyed and announced that U.S. troops would immediately leave Syria. After the announcement, forces loyal to the Assad regime in Damascus, and Turkish-backed proxies as well, began massing on the edges of territory held by the Kurdish-led and U.S.-backed SDF. In fact, even after Trump declared victory, the war against ISIS continued. It wasn't until March that SDF forces officially seized the last major ISIS stronghold in Baghouz. Today ISIS cells still remain scattered throughout Syria and Iraq waging a deadly insurgency. And thousands of American and European troops remain in parts of Syria controlled by the SDF hunting down those cells, much to the relief of many Kurds—and the chagrin of the Syrian and Turkish governments. Last week at a trilateral summit in the Kazakh capital of Astana, Turkish officials met with the Syrian regime's Russian and Iranian allies. In a joint statement released on Aug. 2 leaders from the three countries promised to work toward ending the savage fighting between Syrian government forces and rebels in Idlib Province while also condemning the "separatist" agenda of the SDF, noting they "rejected… all attempts to create new realities on the ground under the pretext of combating terrorism."Throughout the summer the Turkish Army has been massing thousands of troops—including tanks and heavy weapons—along its border with SDF-controlled territory. Over the weekend Turkish officials announced they had notified both Russian and American leaders of their intent to launch a new military incursion into Northeast Syria, which would be the third major Turkish military operation in Syria, following incursions in 2016 and 2018. On Sunday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan proclaimed, "We entered Afrin, Jarablus, and Al-Bab. Now we will enter the east of the Euphrates." American diplomats hastily worked out a new agreement with Turkish officials that seems to have halted the offensive—at least for now.While the U.S. military presence has prevented a full scale invasion of Northeast Syria up to this point, SDF commanders told The Daily Beast that both Turkish and Syrian regime forces have turned to sneakier tactics as they allegedly burn crops, collaborate with jihadist groups, coordinate bombings and even try to bribe some American-backed fighters to change sides in an effort to destabilize the region and make it more vulnerable to their influence.* * *Arson, Bombs, Spies, and Propaganda* * *While some of the fires plaguing Northeast Syria this summer are likely natural, a huge portion have started near military positions, on contested borders and along roadways, and frequently in multiple places at once. In places like Tirbespiye or on the road to Hasakah, the scene is almost apocalyptic—miles of black fields have replaced the bright gold crops. "Most of the fires in our areas are caused by the Syrian regime, Turkish intelligence, and ISIS cells," said Salman Barudo, joint chairman of the Agriculture and Economic Commission for the U.S-backed and Kurdish-led administration that now oversees much of Northeast Syria. According to the region's Economic and Agricultural Authority, the crop losses brought on by fires in Northeast Syria this summer are currently estimated to be more than 19 billion Syrian pounds (about $33 million). The fires have so far destroyed 44,788 hectares (more than 110,000 acres), killed at least 10 people and injured many more—including both military personnel and civilians.In the province of Deir Ezzor to the south, the Syrian military and allied Iranian-backed militias allegedly burned crops and tried to convince locals not to sell them to the Kurdish-led self-administration through a mix of counteroffers and threats. "It's an insidious attempt by the [Syrian] government to undermine the livelihood and base of support for Rojava," says David Phillips, a former diplomat who is now the director of the Peace-Building and Human Rights Program at Columbia University's Institute for the Study of Human Rights. "It highlights the precarious position of Kurds stuck between Turkey to the north and aggression from the [Assad] regime."In the Syrian city of Raqqa the devastating impact of the war is readily apparent. Much of the city remains rubble. Raqqa has been highly contested throughout the Syrian civil war. It was first controlled by factions of the Free Syrian Army before the al-Qaeda aligned Jabhat al-Nusra took over. ISIS took the city in January 2014 and made it the Caliphate's capital. SDF forces finally seized Raqqa in 2017 with the backing of Coalition forces. While Western military leaders touted their aerial bombing campaign as "the most precise" in history, much of the infrastructure has been destroyed and Amnesty International estimates Coalition forces killed more than 1,600 civilians. Small businesses are slowly setting up shop even among the devastation, and children play in the streets—but the recovery remains slow. International funding for reconstruction has been scant. ISIS also remains a problem, with sleeper cells regularly detonating bombs and ambushing local officials. But SDF officials stressed that ISIS isn't the only group with cells planting bombs in the city.They're Still Pulling Bodies Out of ISIS' Capital"There are some problems with the regime, they have been carrying out bombings to try to scare people and make them flee the city," explained a commander in the Raqqa Internal Security Forces who is known by the nom de guerre Mohammed Raqqa. A Kurd, he took on the city's name because he was born and raised in Raqqa and has been overseeing its internal security for about a year. "Lately the regime has been behind more bombings here than ISIS, but the reduction in ISIS bombings might be because they want to change tactics."Security officials in Raqqa told The Daily Beast that coalition special operations forces have supported local forces by helping them track cells and bombers, providing logistical support and aerial surveillance.SDF leaders say they have gradually tracked the regime's operations through interrogations of suspects and analyzing patterns in the attacks. Mohammed explained that ISIS bombings are typically more complex and coordinated, usually involving multiple explosive devices and occasionally accompanied by guerrilla-style attacks against security forces. By contrast regime operations usually only involve one bomb and perpetrators quickly flee the scene.The regime's campaign started "after President Trump announced that U.S. troops would withdraw," said SDF spokesperson Farhad Youssef. He added that the Syrian government's covert bombing campaign has particularly centered on former ISIS strongholds like Raqqa, Manbij and Deir Ezzor that have struggled to rebuild and that regime agents hope to exploit tensions between Kurds and Arabs. "The regime wants to discredit the coalition and the SDF and send a message to people that we can't protect them." SDF members admitted that they initially struggled to gain the trust of locals in Raqqa when they first arrived in the city, but insist that they have slowly made inroads. Today most of the city's internal security force is made up of Arab members, many of them locals from the area.Mohammed said the cells carrying out bombings on behalf of the regime seem less driven by ideology or loyalty to Assad and more motivated by financial incentives. When caught, members generally surrender easily and talk readily. "We have caught several people who confessed that they work for the regime and that they took money," Mohammed said. "Lots of people are coming back [to Raqqa], but there's no opportunities for work."Members of the Raqqa Internal Security Forces allege that on some occasions regime agents have used children, both boys and girls and usually between the ages of 11 and 16, to plant bombs before detonating them by remote control. "They tell the children 'go take this bag to this place' and that they'll give them cigarettes, buy them clothes or give them money," Mohammed explained. "Then after the explosion a lot of times they don't even actually pay them."SDF personnel said that many of the regime attacks target wealthier neighborhoods in an effort to drive away entrepreneurs and other educated professionals. "The reconstruction is what's most important. Half the city has no electricity. What we need is real support, financial support, to rebuild the city," says Mohammed. "There are some organizations working, but they're limited—they need international organizations to support them."Amid continued bombings the Syrian government has also been conducting a simultaneous propaganda campaign with messages suggesting that Syrian troops will try to retake control of Raqqa—a notion that a portion of the city's frustrated residents seem increasingly open to. "There's a sort of cooperation between Daesh [ISIS] and the regime in that they don't want stability here," Mohammed asserted.Mohammed believes ISIS and the regime have common interests, but said that he doesn't necessarily believe the Syrian government and ISIS are directly coordinating in this case, though Syrian regime defectors have admitted to past cooperation with the group and as recently as last year members of the Druze minority accused the regime and Russia of enabling the militants. Mohammed said he does have reason to believe ISIS has directly benefited from Turkish interventions and is using enclaves held by Turkish troops and their allied militias. "I believe most of the [ISIS] cells are in the city, but some are coming from outside territories, especially Jarabulus and the Turkish areas, to make instability."As Turkish troops began their military buildup along the border video emerged purportedly showing a Kurdish member of the SDF in Manbij abusing Arab residents and has widely circulated on social media. It wouldn't be the first time SDF members got caught mistreating civilians. In February 17, 2018 a group of U.S. Marines in Deir Ezzor provided care to badly wounded Arab civilians as angry Kurdish SDF fighters tried to stop them from providing treatment, leading to a violent confrontation that night that left one Kurdish fighter dead and U.S. Marine Sgt. Cameron Halkovich injured. However the Manbij Military Council—which is made up of both Arabs and Kurds along with other ethnicities—insists that the uniforms in the recent video are wrong and that it's a product of Turkish government propaganda.The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which has been critical of what it considers heavy-handed tactics and abuses by the SDF in several parts of the country, agrees the video is likely faked and that the timing isn't a coincidence. "The Syrian Observatory rejects all forms of torture and abuse against the Syrian citizen by any party," it said in a statement. "However, such fabricated videos in primitive ways which appear… at a time when Turkey is preparing to launch a military campaign east of Euphrates, aim to create an Arab-Kurdish strife."In the al-Hol displaced persons camp, where SDF authorities have housed suspected families of ISIS fighters since the Battle of Baghouz, there are almost daily attacks on the camp's staff and aid workers by residents. More than 73,000 people currently live in the camp and some are vocally eager for the prospect of a Turkish invasion, seeing it as a potential opportunity to stage large scale uprisings and escape. Foreign "ISIS brides" seem particularly enthusiastic. "[The Turkish Army] will get here, and they will liberate us," an American woman in al-Hol who didn't want to reveal her real name but who goes by Umm Sofia told The Daily Beast."If the coalition withdrew, we would face problems from both Turkey and the Regime," said Mohammed. "Both would attack from the North and from the West." * * *Shifting Alliances* * *When the war in Syria began in 2011 after forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad fired on Arab Spring activists, the Kurdish-led Democratic Union Party decided not to side with either the regime or the opposition despite the government's long history of repressing the Kurds. Instead they pursued what they called a "third way"—their own "Rojava Revolution" aimed at all people and not just Kurds.The goal was to create an autonomous region with a decentralized governing structure based on democratic confederalism and in 2012 some Syrian Kurds began forming "people's protection units" as self-defense forces—better known as the YPG. Their ideology aligns closely with the militant Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Turkey and Ankara considers the YPG to be an extension of the insurgency in its own Kurdish regions. Despite early battles in 2012, for much of the conflict the regime and the YPG largely avoided direct confrontation with each other—despite occasional clashes in cities like Qamishlo where both sides control different sections of the city. They both fought against Sunni Arab militant groups that were often supported by Turkey and that both considered enemies. But regime hardliners still viewed the Kurds' ambitions to break away from their control as a direct affront to their authority and as a long term threat.During the bitter fight for the town of Kobani along the Turkish-Syrian border in 2014 the YPG formed a united front against ISIS with a few Free Syrian Army factions and other armed groups, fighting the militants as American jets pounded jihadist positions. The Kurdish guerrillas and their new Arab allies (with some prodding by American officials) formed the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) a year later. The new multi-ethnic alliance of armed groups raised alarms in both Ankara and Damascus—especially after the Kurdish-led force began receiving an influx of overt western military assistance in the form of arms, advisers, vehicles, and tactical air support.Turkey has continued backing several rebel groups, though some Syrian activists and former rebels have accused Ankara of using Islamist fighters to snuff out moderate and pro-democratic elements of the Free Syrian Army to turn it into a Turkish proxy force. Today Turkish-backed militants continue to be a thorn in the side of the regime in Idlib, home to millions of displaced Syrians and the scene of what's been the bloodiest fighting in the country lately. This weekend an uneasy ceasefire took hold in the embattled province until Syrian forces resumed aerial bombings on Monday. Syrian and Turkish troops have clashed violently around Idlib, most recently in June when Turkish forces shelled Syrian troops in retaliation for a Syrian government attack that killed a Turkish soldier. However, when it comes to the Kurds in Northeast Syria, Ankara and Damascus's goals seem to overlap.In January 2018, Ankara launched the "Olive Branch" operation. Turkish troops and allied Syrian militias invaded the Kurdish-held city of Afrin, justifying it as an operation against "YPG terrorists." The bloody campaign displaced thousands of people and numerous Human Rights groups accused Turkey of war crimes against the Kurds. Displaced Kurds have since accused Turkish forces of trying to "Arabize" the area by moving Arabs and Turks into formerly Kurdish and mixed neighborhoods. Ankara's goal seems to be to annex Afrin into Turkey as authorities issue residents Turkish ID cards, raise Turkish flags in institutions and schools, and have destroyed Kurdish monuments.During the battle for Afrin a handful of pro-regime fighters actually came to the aid of the Kurdish defenders to fight Turkish troops. But since the battle's conclusion both parties seem to have agreed to a new approach. "After the Afrin war and until now there have been meetings between Turkey and the regime intelligence," a senior SDF commander told The Daily Beast on the condition of anonymity. "According to our information a number of times Syrian intelligence went to Turkey, and Turkey has come to Syria. A month ago they had a meeting in Afrin."Though Erdogan has publicly called for the destruction of the Syrian regime, he and Assad seem to have an understanding of sorts when it comes to the Kurds. "Even though Erdogan is rhetorically committed to transitioning the regime, that coordination between Damascus and Ankara has been going on for years," Phillips argued. "And it will continue because Turkey insists that the regime complies with its offensive against the Kurds."The enmity between Turkey and the SDF has put Washington in a bind. Turkey is a NATO member and historically a close partner of the United States. After SDF troops took the city of Manbij with Western help, U.S. troops began coordinating patrols along the border with the Turkish military and American diplomats began working with Ankara and Kurdish leaders to negotiate a "safe zone" that would keep Syrian Kurdish fighters away from the Turkish border.But Turkish proxies have allegedly fired on U.S. troops near Manbij and the Turkish military recently acquired Russian missiles over the objections of American officials. The United States has since taken steps to cut Turkey out of the F-35 jet program. While American officials seem to have convinced the Turkish military not to launch its latest proposed offensive, the alliance is increasingly strained.Syrian Kurdish leaders, uncertain about their future since Trump announced the withdrawal of U.S. forces, reached out to the regime in Damascus to open talks shortly after Trump's declaration. The two groups have long communicated through back channels. However, the potential loss of American military support for the Kurds has undercut their leverage, and seems to have made the regime less interested in negotiating."The Kurds are actively seeking mediation from international mediators. It's the regime that is reluctant to talk to them," explains Phillips. "[The regime] discovered from their experience elsewhere in the country that they can use overwhelming force with Russian and Iranian backing to get the opposition to kneel and succumb to their demands."Even as Turkish-backed rebels and Syrian government forces continued sparring in Idlib, they have both kept one eye on their American-backed enemies in Northeast Syria waiting for an opportunity to strike. "Let me be clear: If the U.S. withdrew, Turkey and Syria would collaborate in an offensive against the Kurds and commit terrible atrocities in the Northeast," says Phillips.* * *Fragile Gains* * *The oil rich province of Deir Ezzor may be one of the most volatile places in SDF-held Syria. It was the last stronghold of ISIS, where many fighters made their final stand at Baghouz. It's also where American special operations troops fought a fierce battle against a force of Russian mercenaries and pro-regime fighters last year. The ousting of ISIS from its last stronghold in Baghouz has made the situation even more complex. Today coalition forces, SDF fighters, Russian troops and contractors, the Syrian army, Iranian agents and ISIS cells all operate within the city of Deir Ezzor and throughout the province.For months, some Arab residents have held protests against the SDF. Locals have lodged complaints about a lack of services, an ailing economy and frustration with a security situation that remains volatile as attacks and bombings target both civilians and local forces. All the while Coalition special operations troops conduct raids against suspected ISIS cells on an almost daily basis, often alongside SDF fighters."The coalition forces, especially the British forces, started operations to capture ISIS members in the area and they killed civilians in the process," said Abu Kahwla, an Arab SDF commander. "Of course people mistake the coalition forces with the SDF and the media say they are all the same, they don't understand this is two different things." Kahwla, who says he commands roughly 11,500 SDF fighters in Deir Ezzor, told the Daily Beast one of the greatest challenges he and his men face is the wide-ranging—and sometimes shifting—mix of ethnic groups and tribes in the area. For instance, there is now a significant presence of Shiite Muslims. For years Iranian-backed militias have sought alter Syria's demographics to bolster support for the regime by displacing Sunni Arabs and Kurds who opposed Assad and repopulating towns with Shiites. "This has been a long-time project for Iran," explains Kahwla. "They started years ago to have influence in this area, and the Shiite population is growing." Kahwla also said that outside forces are trying to bribe tribal leaders to turn them against SDF. "They offered million of dollars, even to me," he noted. "This strategy is not just the regime, also Iran is doing the same: offering money to different clans."Kahwla doesn't mince words in accusing both the regime and regional powers of using militant groups as proxies to advance their interests and undermine the SDF. "Everybody knows that, they use Daesh sleeper cells to bomb cities like Hasakah, Manbij, and even here. The last one was on July 11," he said. "They also use other groups such as Jabhat al Nusra to make bombing campaigns against the SDF and weaken their position with the people."But ultimately Kawhla said that the SDF can't solve Deir Ezzor's problems, and that in many ways the people don't really want them to. "Everyone in Deir Ezzor wants self-rule. They don't want an external force to come and rule them," he explains. "They want to have a self-administration, this is why we got initial support, because the aim of SDF is exactly that. But we are military and not a political force, so now we are waiting for the council to step up." Kawhla said he sees reason to be optimistic about the future, but that conflicts between outside powers playing out in Syria continually thwart local efforts. "All these external forces, Iran, Russia, Turkey, even America, should stop interfering in our affairs," he said. "Each day they spend in our country they force us to work for at least another year."However, as international players vie for control of strategic Syrian oil fields it's unlikely that meddling will stop soon. It's also why, despite talk of American withdrawal, U.S. troops may be in Syria for a very long time. "I think that the U.S. has a strategic objective, has a strategic goal, in maintaining an association with the Syrian Kurds," said Phillips. "Otherwise the U.S. has no friends or allies in Syria and can't influence events. That doesn't mean that the U.S. won't downsize, but I can't imagine a full withdrawal."Read more at The Daily Beast.Get our top stories in your inbox every day. Sign up now!Daily Beast Membership: Beast Inside goes deeper on the stories that matter to you. Learn more.
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| Emotions Erupt During Court Hearing for DUI Vehicular Homicide Suspect Posted: 07 Aug 2019 02:38 PM PDT  A 62-year-old Washington state woman who has a history of driving while under the influence has pleaded not guilty in the death of a 24-year-old man.
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| Man leads police on chase from Missouri to Tennessee after stealing car full of kittens Posted: 07 Aug 2019 12:00 PM PDT  A man accused of stealing a car full of cats led police through at least fourdifferent states before he was finally arrested Monday, according to WTVF
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| Weakened but unbowed, NRA head digs in against gun control Posted: 08 Aug 2019 04:14 PM PDT  In the aftermath of the back-to-back massacres in Texas and Ohio, the debate over gun control has returned to the National Rifle Association and its immense power to stymie any significant legislation on the issue. The man largely responsible for the NRA's uncompromising stance is its decades-long CEO, Wayne LaPierre, who has been engulfed in turmoil and legal issues as he orchestrates the group's latest effort to push back against gun-control measures. Law enforcement authorities are investigating the NRA's finances, and the gun group has ousted top officials and traded lawsuits with the longtime marketing firm credited with helping to shape LaPierre's and the NRA's image.
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| China continued Iran oil imports in July in teeth of U.S. sanctions: analysts Posted: 08 Aug 2019 02:15 AM PDT  SINGAPORE/BEIJING (Reuters) - China imported Iranian crude oil in July for the second month since a U.S. sanctions waiver ended, according to research from three data firms, with one estimate showing some oil entered tanks holding the country's strategic reserves. According to the firms, which track tanker movements, between 4.4 million and 11 million barrels of Iranian crude were discharged into China last month, or 142,000 to 360,000 barrels per day (bpd). The imports are continuing at a precarious moment in U.S.-China relations: The flow is hampering U.S. President Donald Trump's efforts to choke off oil exports vital to Iran through sanctions, just as tensions rise in the festering U.S.-China trade dispute that has cast a pall over the global economy.
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| DRC medics arrested over murder of WHO Ebola doctor Posted: 07 Aug 2019 01:53 PM PDT  Three Congolese medics have been detained over the murder of a World Health Organization (WHO) doctor who was fighting an Ebola outbreak in Democratic Republic of Congo, a military prosecutor said on Wednesday. Cameroonian doctor Richard Valery Mouzoko Kiboung was shot dead on April 19 in an attack on a hospital in the eastern city of Butembo. The arrested doctors will be prosecuted for "terrorism" and "criminal conspiracy," Lieutenant-Colonel Jean-Baptiste Kumbu Ngoma, military prosecutor for Butembo in North Kivu province, told AFP.
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| Police should prioritise animal welfare over protesters' rights, says Countryside Alliance after activists accused of killing thousands of pheasant chicks Posted: 08 Aug 2019 08:52 AM PDT  The police should prioritise animal welfare over the rights of protesters who storm farms and upset livestock, the Countryside Alliance has said, after activists were accused of causing the deaths of thousands of pheasant chicks. Direct action from animal rights campaigners, in which they storm farms, is on the rise, according to Tim Bonner, the chief executive of the organisation. Over the last year, activists have been accused of disturbing and even killing animals including piglets and turkeys. Last month, pheasant farmer Eloise McDonald, 23, found dead chicks with hundreds of birds huddled together after a raid on her family farm near Ashford, Kent. She wrote on Facebook: "Some lowlife scumbag so-called 'animal lovers' let out 20,000 of my birds, cut all the fencing, cut gas pipes, hundreds of week-old birds dead, gasping for water and starving!" Ms McDonald estimated that around 3,000 birds had perished. Mr Bonner said that while hunt saboteurs have engaged in forms of direct action for decades, there is a new wave of vegan activists who storm farms in order to get pictures for social media and raise awareness of their cause. He told The Telegraph: "It's a relatively new phenomenon, the farm invasions isn't something we've seen much of before. "Another prominent one is vigils at abattoirs and I understand people take views and don't like animals being killed but all they are doing is increasing the amount of time they are spending on the vehicle and are making things more stressful. "Obviously people can protest about whatever they want, but when animal welfare is impacted that is not acceptable." While the Countryside Alliance had found that police took the game farm vandalism seriously, the chief executive said there are issues with farm invasions. He explained: "With the farm invasion sometimes the policing does tend to be slightly biased towards ensuring people can protest - but if those protests are having an impact on the welfare of animals, if suffering is caused by that "There's a level of cynicism among the hardcore extremists and among the new generation of activists there's a level of ignorance. Making your views known - there's nothing wrong with that - but make sure you demonstrate in a way that doesn't impact the welfare of animals."
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| Former Boy Scout leader had 10,000 photos and 600 videos of child porn Posted: 08 Aug 2019 04:55 AM PDT ![Former Boy Scout leader had 10,000 photos and 600 videos of child porn]( "Former Boy Scout leader had 10,000 photos and 600 videos of child porn") A former Boy Scout leader was sentenced Wednesday for possession of thousands of images and hundreds of videos of child pornography.
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| Why Are So Many House Republicans Retiring? Posted: 08 Aug 2019 03:30 AM PDT  On Monday, Representative Kenny Marchant became the twelfth House Republican (and the fourth GOP member from Texas) to announce that he will not seek reelection in 2020. What explains the House GOP exodus in general and the "Texodus" in particular?There are a few different factors. First, being in the minority simply isn't as interesting or fun as being in the majority. Plenty of Republicans saw the writing on the wall in 2018, when 39 House GOP incumbents, including Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, declined to seek reelection. Some are learning that lesson now."It would be unusual if Republicans weren't experiencing a high number of retirements," David Wasserman, who analyzes House races at the Cook Political Report, tells National Review. "That's what happens when you lose the majority. That's what happened in 2008, which is one reason Democrats had a banner year in House races twice in a row." Wasserman notes that 2020 GOP retirements are "on pace to match or exceed 2008."A second factor contributing to the GOP retirements is that the Trump presidency has turned safe Republican suburban districts into battlegrounds.For example, Kenny Marchant's margin of victory in his suburban Dallas district was 25 points in 2012, 33 points in 2014, 17 points in 2016, and 3 points in 2018.Texas congressman Pete Olson, who has also announced his retirement, won his suburban Houston district by 32 points in 2012, 35 points in 2014, 19 points in 2016, and 5 points in 2018.Those are trend lines that no incumbent wants to see."The suburbs are diversifying and moderating so rapidly that many of the districts Republicans drew back in 2011 are no longer reliable," says Wasserman.In 2018, Democrats ousted two Texas Republicans in Houston and Dallas. "Historically, the cities have been bright blue and surrounded by bright red doughnuts of Republican suburban voters," Texas senator Ted Cruz told the Washington Post last week. "What happened in 2018 is that those bright red doughnuts went purple — not blue, but purple. We've got to do a more effective job of carrying the message to the suburbs.""The president's reelection campaign needs to take Texas seriously," said Cruz, who won reelection by just 2.6 points in 2018. Cruz added that it is "by no means a given" that Trump will carry the state in 2020.The GOP's suburban problem isn't limited to Texas. Retiring Georgia congressman Rob Wooddall won reelection in his district northeast of Atlanta by 21 to 31 percentage points from 2012 to 2016, but he won reelection by just two-tenths of a percentage point in 2018. When a blue wave swept over the House GOP in 2018, Republicans lost districts that include suburban areas in states as red as Kansas, Utah, and South Carolina.A third factor contributing to GOP retirements, says Wasserman, is the "disconnect between President Trump's worldview" and that of some in the Republican caucus. This is the best explanation for the retirement of Texas Republican Will Hurd, a former CIA operative and the lone black Republican in the House, who won narrow victories in 2014, 2016, and 2018. Many thought that Hurd, at age 41, could be the future of the party.But Hurd said in a statement last week that he has decided to "pursue opportunities outside the halls of Congress to solve problems at the nexus between technology and national security," without saying what exactly he plans to do. Hurd has disagreed with President Trump on the border wall, free trade, and foreign policy. And he was one of just four House Republicans who voted in July to condemn Trump's tweets telling progressive Democratic congresswomen to "go back" to the countries "from which they came," fix them, and then "come back and show us how it is done." (The four lawmakers he was addressing are minorities, and three are natural-born citizens.)Martha Roby, an articulate and promising 43-year-old member from Alabama, also announced her retirement this summer. In 2016, Roby said she couldn't vote for Trump after the Access Hollywood tape became public, but she supported the Trump presidency enough to win the president's endorsement in 2018.Another possible factor nudging members toward retirement, a factor that no one would ever likely admit to, is that members of Congress haven't gotten a pay raise in a decade. On one hand, a member's $174,000 salary is three times the national median salary. On the other hand, members of Congress are expected to maintain two residences while making a salary well below what they could likely make outside of government. At this populist moment, it's not clear when the next raise for members of Congress is coming: A deal to raise congressional salaries by 2.6 percent collapsed in June.Some of the retirees are stepping down for reasons that have little to do with the weakness of the House GOP. A couple are seeking higher office, such as Alabama's Bradley Byrne, who is running for the Senate, and Montana's Greg Gianforte, who is running for governor. And a couple of retirees, Rob Bishop of Utah and Mike Conaway of Texas, come from safe districts but are losing their status as committee ranking members owing to the GOP's self-imposed term-limits.But any way you look at it, twelve retirements so far is bad news for the House GOP. We're still only seven months into the new Congress, and several more representatives will probably announce their retirement in the coming months. For all the talk about voters' anger at Washington, incumbents are still much more likely to win their elections than are candidates running for open seats. This summer, the GOP's slim odds of winning back the 19 seats necessary to take back the House have become even slimmer.
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